Financial Planning

Bonds, do I still need them?

Bonds, do I still need them?

One word, yes. Here is why…

A great article from Morningstar (here) pointed out that since 1974, the US stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has recorded 10 years with a loss. Not bad when considering that those 10 years with a loss occurred over a 50-year period. How much would you have invested knowing that you could make money 80% of the time? But, alas, hindsight is 20/20 and no one owns a crystal ball - such is the risk/reward paradigm.

However, since 1974, did you know there was an asset category with a positive rate of return in 9 of those 10 negative stock years? Yep, you probably guessed it, bonds. Bonds, as measured by the US Aggregate Index, produced a positive rate of return 90% of the time when stocks lost value. Can you guess the one aberration? See the table below from Morningstar (article link here) for your answer.

Dividends - when should you reinvest?

Dividends - when should you reinvest?

Amy Arnott of Morningstar wrote a really nice article (found here) about when to reinvest your dividends.

The thing I like about it, is she kept it rather simple. While there may be a fistful of other reasons for or against reinvesting dividends, there is something to be said for general principles or maxims that cut through the noise of too much information. We have all suffered the effects of too much data or information, i.e., inertia, analysis paralysis, or whatever you would like to call it - too much information causes us to do nothing.

So, when should you reinvest your dividends:

Working past age 65? Do you need to sign up for Medicare?

This is a common question that many folks have:

“[I]f I am working, do I need to sign up for Medicare when I turn 65?”

And, yep, you guessed it, the natural follow-up question is, what parts do I need to sign up for, Part A, Part B, Part D, Part C, Part G…some, none, or all of the preceding?

Despite the alphabet soup of Parts A, B, C, D, and G of Medicare coverage, Medicare.gov has done a good job of providing an interactive tool for helping one determine when they need to sign up for Medicare if working past age 65. Please find Medicare’s interactive tool here (https://www.medicare.gov/basics/get-started-with-medicare/medicare-basics/working-past-65).

If you have questions about your particular retirement planning needs or your investment portfolio, please feel free to contact Intelligent Investing at www.mynmfp.com/new-clients for a no-obligation consultation.

For additional information about your Medicare options, please click on the link here.

Financial advice boiled down to fit on an index card…

This PBS news report (https://youtube.com/watch?v=JdUKhgW1gOo&feature=shared) resurfaced again the other day on one of my news feeds - “All the financial advice you’ll ever need fits on a single index card.” It’s an oldie but a goodie. Sure, finances can be more complicated, but, do they really need to be? The precept proposed here makes me think of a quote often attributed to Albert Einstein, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” Thank you Harold Pollack for your contribution, “[A]s simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” - Leonardo da Vinci.

Time in the market versus timing the market…

Time in the market versus timing the market…

It’s an old saw, but time in the market is hard to beat.

As the above image from Venture Capitalist shows, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 index between January 1, 2003, and December 30, 2022, can have various outcomes. As I am not typically one to bury a lead, “stay invested” or “hold the course” is today’s message (some may recognize the Jack Bogle verbiage of “hold the course”).

A “hawkish pause” by the Fed...

A “hawkish pause” by the Fed...

What does a “hawkish pause” by the Fed mean?

Simply put, the Fed decided not to raise interest rates in June of 2023 but reserved (or threatened with) the right to do so later in the year. “Hawkish” and “threatened” are pretty provocative words, so why are folks brandishing such terms?

Is diversification dead?

Is diversification dead?

In one word, no.

But, hey, wait a minute, I can hear folks saying…I own a broad mix of stocks and bonds and I lost money in 2022; ergo, diversification seems to no longer work. And, that is a completely understandable feeling/interpretation; albeit (potentially) a little premature I offer. Why? Because one data point does not a trend make and, rationally, as investors, we must expect to lose sometimes on the risks we take (the operative word here being “sometimes,” hopefully). Additionally, the following two thought points might help reestablish your recently shaken belief in diversification.

2022 has come to a close...

2022 has come to a close...

2022 has come to a close and it has been a tough year for investors.  For example, by some measures (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1129526/where-to-invest-in-bonds-in-2023), bonds (including investment-grade core bond funds) have never performed this poorly – down approximately 13% for the year.  Compound this with a stock market that is contemporaneously off by over 19% and the unease of paper losses becomes palpable.  Rationally, investors must expect to lose occasionally on the risks we take.  Without intent to diminish such losses, this does not (and should not) alter your investing plan of employing broadly diversified low-cost index funds, that generally own the entire US and International stock and bond markets.  Arguably, the exception (i.e., 2022), proves the general rule (i.e., that diversification works).

When is the Right Time for You to Start Social Security Benefits?

We always hear that you should delay Social Security benefits as long as possible.  But the right time to take Social Security benefits will be different for each person. The one thing that is the same for each person is the formula used to determine your benefit.  By determining your benefit, you can then run the numbers to determine when the best time is for you to start taking your benefit, based on your specific situation.

Your Social Security benefit is based on your primary insurance amount (PIA). PIA is the amount a person would receive if he/she elects to begin receiving retirement benefits at his/her normal retirement age (NRA – also known as Full Retirement Age (FRA)).  The NRA varies by year of birth for retirees.  Currently, most retirees have an NRA ranging from 66 to 67 years of age.

To calculate your PIA, the government uses your average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), which is the sum of the 35 highest-earning years divided by the total number of months in those years.  The formula also has two dollar amounts that are called “bend points.” The bend points change annually and are based on the changes in the national average wage index.  For 2022, the bend points are $1,024 and $6,172. The table with these annual changes can be found here on the Social Security Administration website (link here).  The year of eligibility is the year in which the worker turns 62 years of age. 

Now that we have all the pieces, we can plug them into the PIA formula:

a)       90% of the first $1,024 of his/her AIME (multiply $1,024 x .90), plus

b)      32% of his/her AIME over $1,024 up to $6,172 (multiple this amount x .32), plus

c)       15% of his/her AIME over $6,172 (multiply this number x .15).

The sum of these three numbers rounded down to the nearest dollar is your PIA.

The amount of the PIA that you receive depends on when you retire.  See the table below for how much you receive depending on when you start your benefit.

Age You Start Your Benefit Percentage of PIA You Receive

62 (NRA of 66) 75%

62 (NRA of 67) 70%

66 (NRA of 66) 100%

67 (NRA of 67) 100%

70 (NRA of 66) 132%

70 (NRA of 67) 124%

With all this information, you can now run the numbers to see how much you are leaving on the table by taking your benefit early, or gaining by holding off.

As an example, if your NRA is 66 and your PIA is $1,000 per month or $12,000 per year, by starting your benefit at 62, your PIA will be $750 per month or $9,000 per year.  By delaying until you are 70, your PIA will be $1320 per month or $15,840 per year.  You can now compare the numbers to determine what works best for you.  For example, at Intelligent Investing we commonly discuss with clients when their break-even points occur for different Social Security claiming strategies.

But the numbers should not be your only consideration.  Life expectancy is important.  If you are ill and have a short life expectancy, then it would be best to start your benefits earlier.  Sometimes your work situation or lack of one may require you to start your benefits at 62.  On the other hand, if you have a long life expectancy, then it may behoove you to delay until 70 to begin your benefits.

Now that you have these formulas, you can work with the numbers to see when the best time for you to start your retirement benefits is.

The following links give more details about the topics in this blog.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/nra.html

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/piaformula.html

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/31/how-much-will-starting-social-security-early-cost/Age You


Where is inflation going (Part 2)???

Where is inflation going (Part 2)???

Back in May, I wrote an article about the potential path of inflation going forward into 2021 and the near-term beyond. Generally, the belief back then by the Fed and by pundits (such as myself) was that inflation was “transitory,” especially when compared against “base effects.” Where do we stand almost three months later…

Where is inflation going???

Where is inflation going???

Lately, all we seem to hear is that inflation is going up.

However, I just read an interesting article by Preston Caldwell (a Morningstar contributor), wherein he noted that inflation (notably the Consumer Price Index (CPI)) jumped 0.6% in March and 0.8% in April. Ostensibly, these large monthly jumps seem to imply inflation is coming down the pike. Yet, when one looks slightly deeper into the numbers, Preston noted that a lot of March’s and April’s monthly inflation jumps can be attributed to new/used car sales and food price inflation.

Best state to retire in...

Looking for the best state to retire in the U.S., then click on this Yahoo article link: here.

Should I be paying my student loans right now?

Should I be paying my student loans right now?

As a financial advisor, I frequently have the preceding question posed to me quite often about how best to pay off student loan debt. For example, should I be paying extra on my school loans, or should I be doing something else with my money? Like many things, it depends on several factors. This is not a coy or flippant response, read on to see why…

What are market analysts predicting for 2021 with a blue “mini-wave”???

What are market analysts predicting for 2021 with a blue “mini-wave”???

With a Democratic House, Senate, and White House, pundits are making their predictions about possible market outcomes for 2021. What equity styles and/or sectors will prevail under a blue “mini-wave”? No one truly knows with 100% conviction what markets will do prospectively, but (fortunately or unfortunately) this will not stop the multitudes of market analysts from making their predictions.

Against the above backdrop, some analysts are recommending the following style, sector, and/or bond investments as Democrats take control of Congress and the White House:

Has COVID-19 changed your retirement plans? Begin with this 3 step process to find out if/when you can retire...

Has COVID-19 changed your retirement plans? Begin with this 3 step process to find out if/when you can retire...

COVID-19 HAS CHANGED A LOT OF PLANS

On the macro level, it has changed many federal, state, county, and city plans. On the micro level, COVID-19 has also changed many companies’ plans, as well as many individuals’ retirement plans. Companies have fought the pandemic with furloughs, work from home (WFH) and, unfortunately, via outright closures. The true economic impact of COVID is yet to be determined, as many companies (and their employees) may whither on the vine as consumer spending recovers too slowly for their benefit. If the impending economic malaise is leaving you uncertain about your future employment/retirement situation, then you might want to run this quick three (3) step analysis prior to taking the retirement plunge or before embarking on your next job search.

Thinking about a Roth IRA conversion...NOW may be a good time!!

With 2020 tax rates being what they are, e.g., 12% for single filers up to $40,125 and 12% for married couples (filing jointly) up to $80,250, now is a good time to consider a Roth IRA conversion. Notably, if you have space at the top end of your income tax bracket because your income is below $40K for individual filers or $80K for married filing jointly filers, then why not utilize the top end of your tax bracket to convert at a 12% tax rate.

Here are a couple more good reasons to consider converting NOW:

Well, the SECURE Act was signed into law yesterday (20Dec2019)...

What is the SECURE Act? Beyond the acronym (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement), it is the most sweeping retirement legislation that Congress has enacted within the past decade. Is this new legislation good or bad? While there are potentially some benefits, I am not the hugest proponent of it. Let’s cover why.

Here are some of the major provisions of the SECURE Act:

  • Required Minimum Distributions will now begin at age 72 (versus 70.5 years of age), as long as you turn 70.5 years of age after 01Jan2020 - I LIKE this provision!!;

  • You can contribute to your traditional IRA after age 70.5 as long as you have earned income - I LIKE this provision, but it does mean folks are working longer;

  • Most inherited IRAs will now need to be distributed within 10 years - I really DISLIKE this provision (the SECURE Act funds its passage through this revenue provision);

  • You may see more annuity options through your 401k provider - I generally dislike this provision because annuities often carry high charges and expense ratios, which benefit the insurance companies and NOT the investor (although annuities can have their place for a select few investors).

With the elimination of the stretch IRA and the addition of higher cost annuity options for 401k participants, some of the beneficial SECURE Act provisions are seeming outweighed by these less beneficial provisions.

If you have questions about the effects of the SECURE Act upon your retirement plan or investment portfolio, please feel free to contact Intelligent Investing at www.mynmfp.com/new-clients for a no-obligation consultation.

For additional information about this topic, please click on the title above.

David L. Hogans, Esq. is an author and the founder of Intelligent Investing, Inc., a registered investment advisor firm located in Albuquerque, NM.  He earned his Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering (ChE) from Virginia Tech and his Juris Doctorate (JD) from the University of Dayton.  Mr. Hogans is licensed to practice law in the states of Virginia and New Mexico, as well as, before the Federal Patent Bar.  For more information about Mr. Hogans and his firm please see his filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (https://files.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Common/crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx?BRCHR_VRSN_ID=602988).

Are not all bond funds the same?

There are a lot of different bond funds available to investors. But, are they the same or are they really different? Morningstar broke down bond funds into four (4) major categories (sure, there are more, but this is a good start). The four (4) bond categories are as follows:

Intermediate Core

  • Invests primarily in investment-grade U.S. fixed income issues including government, corporate, and securitized debt.

  • Holds less than 5% in below-investment-grade exposures.

Intermediate Core-Plus

  • Invests primarily in investment-grade U.S. fixed income issues including government, corporate, and securitized debt.

  • Has greater flexibility than core offerings to hold non-core sectors such as corporate high-yield, bank loan, emerging markets debt, and non-U.S. currency exposures.

Multi-sector

  • Seeks income by diversifying their assets among several fixed-income sectors, usually U.S. government obligations, U.S. corporate bonds, foreign bonds, and high-yield U.S. debt securities.

  • Typically holds 35% to 65% of their assets in securities that are not rated or are rated BB and below by a major agency such as Standard & Poor's or Moody's Investors Service.

Nontraditional

  • Seeks returns uncorrelated with those of the overall bond market.

  • Has the flexibility to invest tactically across a wide swath of individual sectors, including high-yield and foreign debt, in addition to the potential for significant usage of derivatives.

It goes without saying that most individuals would do best if they placed the majority (if not the vast majority) of their bond portfolio holdings within an Intermediate Core Bond Fund. This type of bond fund generally exhibits a correlation that protects investors during a down stock market - as noted below by the graphic from Morningstar about bond fund correlations with the S&P 500 Index. Please also note that a correlation value of 1.00 means the fund perfectly matches the S&P 500 Index, while a correlation value of 0.00 means there is no correlation and a correlation value of -1.00 means they are inversely correlated (as one goes down, the other goes up).

Ten-year return correlation of Morningstar bond categories with the S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index 1.00

U.S. High-Yield Bond 0.72

U.S. Nontraditional Bond 0.50

U.S. Multisector Bond 0.56

U.S. Intermediate Core-Plus Bond 0.15

U.S. Intermediate Core Bond –0.03

Sources: Vanguard and Morningstar, Inc. as of July 31, 2019.

So, the next time you are thinking about stretching out on the yield curve to obtain a little more return from you bond fund portfolio, don’t forget why you invested in bonds in the first place (to smooth out the ride of your investment returns over your portfolio’s lifespan).

To learn more about dividend paying stocks versus bonds, see my earlier post (Dividend Paying Stocks versus Bonds).

If you have questions about how to invest your bond portfolio, please feel free to contact Intelligent Investing at www.mynmfp.com/new-clients for a no-obligation consultation.

For additional information about this topic, please click on the title above.

David L. Hogans, Esq. is an author and the founder of Intelligent Investing, Inc., a registered investment advisor firm located in Albuquerque, NM.  He earned his Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering (ChE) from Virginia Tech and his Juris Doctorate (JD) from the University of Dayton.  Mr. Hogans is licensed to practice law in the states of Virginia and New Mexico, as well as, before the Federal Patent Bar.  For more information about Mr. Hogans and his firm please see his filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (https://files.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Common/crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx?BRCHR_VRSN_ID=602988).